Right now: the best rip in BREAKpoint is the Booster Pack at $49.08 against $11.65 of expected pulls — a −80% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 3% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
BREAKpoint (February 3, 2016) is the ninth XY-series set and the second to carry BREAK evolutions. Packs hold 10 cards: a reverse holo plus one rare slot shared by holos, EX cards, BREAKs, full arts and a lone Secret Rare, with no separate hit slot. As vintage sealed, packs and the Elite Trainer Box trade at collector premiums, so rip margins model deeply negative by design.
Community estimates put a Pokémon-EX at roughly 1 in 8 packs, a BREAK about 1 in 13, a full art near 1 in 30 and the set's single Secret Rare, a gold Gyarados-EX, around 1 in 70. Full-art M Gyarados-EX, Gyarados-EX, Espeon-EX and Darkrai-EX lead the Ultra Rare tier, with full-art Skyla the priciest Trainer and M Scizor-EX close behind.
Two products are listed: loose Booster Packs and the 8-pack Elite Trainer Box; no 36-pack booster box listing is tracked here. Loose packs have tended to price closer to EV than the ETB, whose collector premium spreads across just eight packs. The live table pairs each sealed price with a fee-adjusted EV from community-estimated rates and current singles prices, refreshed every couple of hours.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −80% | $49.08 | $11.65 | 3% |
| Elite Trainer Box | −93% | $1099.99 | $93.20 | 0% |
Pull-rate model
BREAKpoint packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 57% |
| Rare slot | Rare Holo | 19% |
| Rare slot | BREAK | 7.5% |
| Rare slot | Pokémon-EX | 12% |
| Rare slot | Full Art (Ultra) | 3% |
| Rare slot | Secret Rare | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in a BREAKpoint Elite Trainer Box?
Eight packs of 10 cards, the XY-era standard. Booster boxes from the era hold 36 packs, but no BREAKpoint box listing is tracked, so the live table compares loose packs with the ETB.
What are the chase cards in BREAKpoint?
The gold Secret Rare Gyarados-EX leads, then full-art M Gyarados-EX, Gyarados-EX, Espeon-EX and Darkrai-EX. Full-art Skyla is the top Trainer, and the regular M Gyarados-EX and full-art M Scizor-EX complete the top eight.
Are BREAKpoint pull rates official?
No. The Pokémon Company doesn't publish pull rates. The model uses community estimates: a Pokémon-EX roughly 1 in 8 packs, a BREAK about 1 in 13, a full art near 1 in 30 and a Secret Rare around 1 in 70, all from one shared rare slot.
What are the odds a Booster Pack of BREAKpoint pays for itself?
About 3% after ~15% selling fees (5% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the BREAKpoint pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $3.06 of cards after fees against its $49.08 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 2%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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