Right now: the best rip in Ancient Origins is the Booster Pack at $140.02 against $14.80 of expected pulls — a −91% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 1% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Ancient Origins is a Pokémon set released 2015/08/12. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.
XY-era pack (10 cards): a reverse holo, and a rare slot where Pokémon-EX land roughly 1 in 8 packs, full arts about 1 in 30 and secret rares about 1 in 70. Vintage sealed: prices are collector premiums, so rip margins are deeply negative by design — the singles market is the real signal, and pokemontcg.io prices it. Elite Trainer Boxes of this era hold 8 packs. Pull rates are community estimates.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −91% | $140.02 | $14.80 | 1% |
Pull-rate model
Ancient Origins packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 62% |
| Rare slot | Rare Holo | 21.5% |
| Rare slot | Pokémon-EX | 12% |
| Rare slot | Full Art (Ultra) | 3% |
| Rare slot | Secret Rare | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Ancient Origins pays for itself?
About 1% after ~15% selling fees (1% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Ancient Origins pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $2.05 of cards after fees against its $140.02 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 1%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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