Right now: the best rip in Ancient Origins is the Booster Pack at $146.69 against $15.13 of expected pulls — a −91% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 1% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Ancient Origins (August 12, 2015) is the seventh XY-series set and ships in the era's 10-card pack: a reverse holo and one rare slot, no separate hit slot. Its rare-slot pool is top-heavy, with five Secret Rares and a dozen Ultra Rares among 100 priced singles. As vintage sealed, loose packs trade at collector premiums, so rip margins model deeply negative by design.
Community estimates put a Pokémon-EX at roughly 1 in 8 packs, a full art near 1 in 30 and a Secret Rare around 1 in 70. The secrets carry the set: gold M Rayquaza-EX leads by a distance, with Secret Rare Primal Kyogre-EX and Primal Groudon-EX behind it. Full-art Lugia-EX, Giratina-EX, M Sceptile-EX, M Tyranitar-EX and Tyranitar-EX make the Ultra Rare tier unusually deep.
Only loose Booster Packs are listed for Ancient Origins; no booster box or Elite Trainer Box listing is tracked, so the live table is a single row. It pairs the pack price with a fee-adjusted EV built from community-estimated rates and current singles prices. A 1-in-70 tier holding most of the value means the typical pack returns a fraction of its price; the numbers below refresh every couple of hours.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −91% | $146.69 | $15.13 | 1% |
Pull-rate model
Ancient Origins packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 62% |
| Rare slot | Rare Holo | 21.5% |
| Rare slot | Pokémon-EX | 12% |
| Rare slot | Full Art (Ultra) | 3% |
| Rare slot | Secret Rare | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the chase cards in Ancient Origins?
The gold Secret Rare M Rayquaza-EX is the headline, followed by Secret Rare Primal Kyogre-EX and Primal Groudon-EX. Full-art Lugia-EX, Giratina-EX, M Sceptile-EX, M Tyranitar-EX and Tyranitar-EX fill out a deep Ultra Rare tier.
How many packs are in an Ancient Origins booster box?
XY-era booster boxes hold 36 packs and Elite Trainer Boxes hold 8, but neither has a listing tracked for Ancient Origins. The live table models loose 10-card Booster Packs only.
Are Ancient Origins pull rates official?
No. The Pokémon Company doesn't publish pull rates. The model uses community estimates for XY-era packs: a Pokémon-EX roughly 1 in 8, a full art about 1 in 30 and a Secret Rare near 1 in 70, all drawn from one rare slot.
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Ancient Origins pays for itself?
About 1% after ~15% selling fees (1% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Ancient Origins pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $2.10 of cards after fees against its $146.69 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 1%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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